Obamacare enrollment drops before deadline after subsidies expire

Caitlin Reilly, Bloomberg News on Jan 13, 2026

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WASHINGTON — About 1.4 million fewer people have signed up for Obamacare plans so far compared to last year as a federal tax credit expires and consumers confront significantly higher premiums.

While the dropoff is less severe than projections by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and others, experts warn more attrition is likely in the coming months as consumers face premiums that are, on average, more than doubling.

Through early January, 22.8 million people had signed up for Obamacare plans, down about 6% from last year’s total enrollment, according to a snapshot released Monday by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Consumers have until Jan. 15 to elect new Obamacare plans for the year. They can drop them at any time, something several experts say they expect will happen in the coming months.

Bipartisan efforts are underway in Congress to revive the tax credits, but a compromise that could win broad bipartisan support has proved elusive.

President Donald Trump has threatened to veto legislation that would reinstate the subsidies and sought substantial policy changes instead — including proposals that have previously been nonstarters for Democrats. On Tuesday, he promised to release a separate health care proposal this week, injecting new uncertainty into the debate with just days to go before the enrollment deadline.

Cynthia Cox, senior vice president at KFF, the nonpartisan health care research organization, said the snapshot represents people who have signed up for health insurance plans, including those who were automatically re-enrolled, but doesn’t track those who are actually paying for coverage.

“We don’t know how many of the people who are signed up actually pay their premium and start their coverage,” Cox said. Given the sharp increase in costs this year, people are likely to drop coverage in the coming months, she said.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office had previously projected a 2.2 million drop in enrollees in 2026 due to the expiration of the subsidy, with about 4 million people opting out over 10 years.

Centene Corp., Molina Healthcare and Oscar Health Inc. are the insurers most heavily involved in selling Obamacare coverage. UnitedHealth Group Inc., Elevance Health Inc. and Cigna Group also sell exchange plans that could be hit by lower enrollment.