Colombia holds primaries that will shake up presidential race

Oscar Medina, Bloomberg News on Mar 8, 2026

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Colombians are voting in primaries Sunday that will produce three candidates — one each from the conservative, leftist and centrist blocs — who will go on to face hard-line front-runners Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella in May’s presidential election. Voters are also choosing members of the Senate and the lower house of Congress.

In the conservative coalition’s primary, Senator Paloma Valencia is the favorite among nine contenders. She is calling for a beefed-up army and police force to launch a military offensive against cocaine-trafficking gangs, and she also wants to eliminate the nation’s wealth tax.

A large margin of victory and strong turnout could give Valencia momentum heading into the May 31 vote, where she would compete against Cepeda, an ally of leftist President Gustavo Petro who is leading the polls, and de la Espriella, a lawyer who closely trails him. Neither front-runner is competing in the primaries.

On the left, allies of Petro are also holding a primary, with polls showing former Medellín Mayor Daniel Quintero and former Senate leader Roy Barreras as the leading contenders. Meanwhile, centrist voters are expected to nominate former Bogotá Mayor Claudia López, who has proposed subsidies for job creation and cuts to corporate taxes.

Cepeda has called for the redistribution of wealth and giving land to poor farmers. Polls show him and de la Espriella with a wide lead over all the other candidates. However, the winners of the primaries will have an opportunity to pick up the support of the 13 candidates who’ll be eliminated.

There will likely be a presidential runoff on June 21.

The next president will have to deal with a fiscal deficit that is spooking investors, while record cocaine production has funded the expansion of illegal armed groups that have spread terror across swaths of countryside. A victory for Cepeda would probably trigger a selloff over fears that his plans for higher social spending and a transition away from oil and coal might imply greater borrowing, according to Juan David Ballén, director of economics and markets at Aval Asset Management.

“Some investors fear that challenges including fiscal pressures, a perception of legal and regulatory instability, and factors that could affect confidence, private investment would persist,” Ballén said. “It is also unclear who would make up his economic team.”

Congress elections

Colombians will also elect a 103 senators and 186 lawmakers in the lower house. Polls showed that Petro’s coalition, the Historic Pact, will secure the highest number of seats in the Senate, followed by Paloma Valencia’s party, the Democratic Center.

The Liberal Party, the Conservative Party and the U Party are expected to win a significant bloc of seats, but haven’t yet formally endorsed any presidential candidate. No party is expected to win a majority in either house, meaning that the next president will need to try to build a ruling coalition.

Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. with results expected on Sunday evening.