With winter only weeks away, San Jose and county water officials are taking advantage of an unseasonably warm stretch of autumn weather to ramp up preparations against potential “Super El Niño” storms.

In a joint session Oct. 13, the San Jose City Council and the Santa Clara Valley Water District hashed out how to prepare for the storm and pinpointed high-risk waterways ahead of the rainy season. They also hosted a tour of San Jose’s expanded, 11,000-square-foot Emergency Operations Center, which will serve as central command during major storms.

The urgency follows forecasts from scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), who report a 100% chance that a strong El Niño will persist through March, with an 83% probability of it ranking among the most powerful on record since 1950.

Last month, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency to help cities speed up creek clearing and rush supplies to vulnerable neighborhoods. The order also allows cities like San Jose to log its storm-prep hours to pursue state disaster relief while cutting regulatory red tape to clear waterways before heavy rains arrive.

Local leaders assert they are determined to prevent a repeat of the catastrophic 2017 floods – which inundated neighborhoods around Coyote Creek with muddy water, damaged more than 500 homes, and forced the evacuation of 14,000 residents. Hardest-hit areas in that storm included Rock Springs, Naglee Park, and several mobile home parks along the creek, with damages estimated at $100 million.

Eric Heckman, whose Naglee Park home backs up to Coyote Creek, recalled watching muddy water lap against his garage on a Tuesday morning during the 2017 flood – only to receive an evacuation alert on Wednesday night, long after the surge had gone. Because the disaster struck over Presidents Day weekend that year, key emergency personnel weren’t on the clock.

Today, a newly constructed floodwall stands behind Heckman’s property. Yet even that engineering feat gives him pause: sealing the barrier requires two trained personnel to manually crank shut a massive steel gate the width of a garage.

“There is no number near the wall to say ‘here’s who to call.’ There’s no cameras that are watching it,” Heckman told this news organization. He said he wonders whether crews will be dispatched in time when a storm hits.

Valley Water is advancing major safety upgrades along Coyote Creek alongside a massive earthquake-proofing project at Anderson Dam in Morgan Hill. This winter, engineers can use a new bypass tunnel to safely drain reservoir water ahead of heavy storms, preventing the dam from overflowing while newly built floodwalls keep the creek contained through San Jose.

On the city’s end, San Jose officials highlighted preparations across municipal infrastructure, including clearing storm drains, setting up emergency contracts to remove tree blockages, and enforcing encampment-free buffer zones along nearly 30 miles of waterways to prevent trash from choking channels.

While officials pointed to improved coordination since 2017 – when both agencies faced severe public backlash for miscommunication and delayed evacuation warnings – community members at the joint session made clear that many residents remain anxious.

Mark Schroeder, representing the volunteer group Coyote Mudlarks, presented a petition signed by over 230 residents demanding action on current creek blockages. Schroeder noted his group documented nine current major wood blockages along just a three-quarter-mile stretch of Coyote Creek between William Street Bridge and I-280, warning that breaking debris could trigger a cascading “domino effect” downstream.

“These blockages not only present a flood risk, but also they trap trash, debris, and toxic materials, creating a toxic creek,” Schroeder told the joint body. “The creek cannot be properly cleaned until the blockages are removed.”

Responding to public concern over which agency is responsible for clearing blockages, Mayor Matt Mahan moved to tighten coordination between the agencies. When residents spot a hazard, “they don’t see, and frankly, they shouldn’t have to think about the jurisdictional boundaries between our agencies,” Mahan said, noting officials currently lack a unified map showing bottleneck locations and active clearing efforts.

City Council unanimously approved Mahan’s motion directing city staff to partner with Valley Water on working together on risk assessment to map hotspots and work together on evaluating resident reports of blockages across San Jose’s 140 miles of streams.

South Bay homeless advocate Gail Osmer said during the meeting that the needs of unhoused communities were barely acknowledged. “After the whole presentation, I finally heard the word ‘unhoused,'” Osmer said. “Not one word… of people thinking about the unhoused out there, which is not a shock.”

Water officials said that prior to major storms, crews coordinate with the city to warn individuals living in vulnerable areas about impending flash floods and water surges. Emergency Management Director Ray Riordan added that the city coordinates with contractors and the Red Cross to notify residents to move to higher ground and to activate emergency shelters.

Assistant City Manager Lee Wilcox highlighted that over the last two years, the city has actively cleared and maintained 26 miles of waterway buffer zones free of encampments – including Coyote Meadows – and relies on emergency interim housing to shelter individuals. Mahan also recalled his first week in office in 2023, when city crews helped move over 1,000 unhoused residents out of dangerous waterways during a series of atmospheric river storms.

Located on Senter Road, the new Emergency Operations Center replaces the cramped, 2,700-square-foot room used during the 2017 floods, when 85 emergency personnel had to work in close quarters. According to Riordan, the expanded center can be fully activated within an hour, bringing together cross-trained staff from every city department. Rescue boats and emergency equipment were also placed on display outside the center.

Rep. Sam Liccardo, who served as San Jose’s mayor during the 2017 floods, warned that local municipalities bracing for a potentially historic El Niño could find themselves without traditional federal lifelines. “The administration has unequivocally communicated with local communities that when there’s a disaster you’re on your own,” Liccardo said.

Liccardo pointed to more than 4,300 job cuts at FEMA, alongside $350 million stripped from NOAA weather forecasting and advanced modeling systems. He also charged that the Trump administration has clawed back $885 million that Congress appropriated for next-generation early warning alerts and systematically blocked disaster mitigation grants to California.

Although grappling with tight budgets and projected multimillion-dollar shortfalls over the next two years, San Jose officials maintain the city is ready, whether or not federal help arrives. The city holds $5 million in an Emergency Reserve Fund as its first line of defense for disaster spending and can authorize additional funding from a $29.6 million Budget Stabilization Reserve if costs escalate, the city’s budget office told this news organization.

Mahan emphasized that the city’s strategy is to “get upstream of any potential damage,” prioritizing prevention and stream maintenance to avoid drawing on emergency reserves.

For residents who lived through 2017, however, they can only hope coordination is as tight as officials claim.

As the region heads into what could be a record-setting winter, Heckman said his hope for the city and water district is simple: “Hopefully, at least talk to each other.”

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