LOS ANGELES — The Emmy Awards have become a streamlined affair in recent years, as voters, sifting through a fragmented TV landscape, inevitably land on a small set of favorite programs.

Last year, it was "The Studio," "The Pitt," "Severance" and "Adolescence." The year before that, "Hacks," "The Bear," "Shōgun" and "Baby Reindeer" dominated. The year before that, it was "Beef," "The Bear" and "Succession."

I could keep going, but you get the idea.

While voters' choices have been, more often than not, defensible, the unanimity betrays a lack of imagination and drains any hint of drama from the ceremony. The nadir came in 2020 when "Schitt's Creek" won every comedy category, becoming the first program in television history to pull off such a feat. It felt like a little much. But we were in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, so, in retrospect, who cares? "Schitt's Creek" brought joy into people's lives when they needed it, and it gave us a chance to celebrate the greatness of Catherine O'Hara.

When it comes to a fixed focus, this year's Emmys won't be any different, and, given the underwhelming shows that streamers and networks gave us in the last 12 months, you can't blame voters for zeroing in on the few great series presented to them.

Hopefully then, you've watched "The Pitt," "Widow's Bay" and "Hacks," "DTF St. Louis" and "Beef." Otherwise, you might be wondering what all the fuss is about when the envelopes are opened.

Here's how the races for the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards should shake out when the trophies are presented Monday at 8 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.

Comedy series

"Abbott Elementary"

"The Bear"

"Hacks"

"Margo's Got Money Troubles"

"Nobody Wants This"

"Only Murders in the Building"

"Shrinking"

"Widow's Bay"

Will win: "Widow's Bay"

Could surprise: "Hacks"

After an off-putting fourth season, "Hacks" rebounded this year with a final batch of episodes that ended its run in a satisfying fashion. Emmy voters responded, giving "Hacks" 24 nominations, the most of any comedy in a single year.

But leading the nominations tally doesn't always translate into a win. Last year, "The Pitt" took the drama series Emmy, despite having less than half the nominations of "Severance." Voters still rewarded "Severance" with eight Emmys, including acting awards for Britt Lower and Tramell Tillman. But it didn't have the passionate support to put it across the finish line for a series win.

Just like "The Pitt," "Widow's Bay" has aroused the kind of obsessive fandom that leads to Emmy glory. And with 19 nominations, the most of any new series, it wasn't far behind "Hacks" in overall support. Sentiment could still push "Hacks" across the finish line, but I'm going with the show that arrived late, surprised everyone and became a genuine phenomenon.

Comedy actress

Quinta Brunson, "Abbott Elementary"

Ayo Edebiri, "The Bear"

Elle Fanning, "Margo's Got Money Troubles"

Lisa Kudrow, "The Comeback"

Jean Smart, "Hacks"

Will win: Smart

Smart will rewrite the record books with this one — eight overall acting wins, tying Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Cloris Leachman for most in Emmy history, and going five-for-five, taking lead honors for every season of "Hacks." She told me once that her favorite power ballad was Whitney Houston's soaring "I Have Nothing" ("You have to crank it. ... If you don't cry, you have no heart," she said), a fun choice from a legend possessing such an abundance.

Comedy actor

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, "Wonder Man"

Steve Carell, "Rooster"

Matthew Rhys, "Widow's Bay"

Jason Segel, "Shrinking"

Martin Short, "Only Murders in the Building"

Will win: Rhys

Rhys has already won an Emmy for lead actor in a drama ("The Americans") and could well complete the Emmy lead trifecta this year for his turns in "Widow's Bay" and the limited series "The Beast in Me." Playing the high-strung mayor in "Widow's Bay," Rhys shifts between droll humor and genuine terror with ease, anchoring the show's winning blend of real and supernatural. The show would not work nearly as well without him.

Comedy supporting actress

Dale Dickey, "Widow's Bay"

Hannah Einbinder, "Hacks"

Janelle James, "Abbott Elementary"

Kate O'Flynn, "Widow's Bay"

Michelle Pfeiffer, "Margo's Got Money Troubles"

Megan Stalter, "Hacks"

Jessica Williams, "Shrinking"

Will win: O'Flynn

Could surprise: Einbinder

O'Flynn likely won this Emmy when the fourth episode of "Widow's Bay," the one where Patricia's sunset cocktail party morphs into a different kind of rager, teetering on a mass ritual sacrifice. It was an unforgettable showcase for O'Flynn, who up to that point had been mostly on the edges of the action as a socially awkward and endearing mayoral assistant. Now Patricia's red dress and antler headpiece ensemble will be this year's go-to Halloween costume.

Comedy supporting actor

Colman Domingo, "The Four Seasons"

Paul W. Downs, "Hacks"

Harrison Ford, "Shrinking"

Nick Offerman, "Margo's Got Money Troubles"

Stephen Root, "Widow's Bay"

Michael Urie, "Shrinking"

Tyler James Williams, "Abbott Elementary"

Will win: Root

Could surprise: Ford

I thought Ford would take it last year, but voters instead gave us the delightful surprise of a Jeff Hiller win for "Somebody Somewhere." So picking Ford again gives me pause, particularly with the scene-stealing Stephen Root on the ballot for "Widow's Bay." And there's some thought that Downs could get a proper sendoff, taking his first acting Emmy for "Hacks" after winning three over the years for writing and executive-producing the show. I'll lean toward Root and a big night for "Widow's Bay."

Drama series

"The Diplomat"

"The Gilded Age"

"Knights of the Seven Kingdoms"

"Paradise"

"The Pitt"

"Pluribus"

"Slow Horses"

"Your Friends & Neighbors"

Will win: "The Pitt"

Where's the karaoke after-party?

Drama actress

Carrie Coon, "The Gilded Age"

Chase Infiniti, "The Testaments"

Keri Russell, "The Diplomat"

Rhea Seehorn, "Pluribus"

Zendaya, "Euphoria"

Will win: Seehorn

Could surprise: Russell

"Pluribus" picked up 18 Emmy nominations, second to only "Widow's Bay" among new series. Seehorn carried a heavy load as its lead, playing a sad, angry woman forced to save the world from happiness and the hive mind. Seehorn's patchy history at the Emmys adds a wrinkle to what should be a layup win, and you can't discount the popularity of "The Diplomat" (seven nominations) and its star, Russell, who won this category over Seehorn earlier this year at the Actor Awards.

Drama actor

Sterling K. Brown, "Paradise"

Gary Oldman, "Slow Horses"

Mark Ruffalo, "Task"

Rufus Sewell, "The Diplomat"

Noah Wyle, "The Pitt"

Will win: Wyle

Wyle earned this Emmy last year and another for executive producing the series-winning show. This year he could pick up three — again for acting and producing, plus he's nominated for directing, though it's for one of the more middling episodes of the season. However that race plays out, he'll be going home with his hands full.

Drama supporting actress

Taylor Dearden, "The Pitt"

Fiona Dourif, "The Pitt"

Allison Janney, "The Diplomat"

Katherine LaNasa, "The Pitt

Sepideh Moafi, "The Pitt"

Julianne Nicholson, "Paradise"

Karolina Wydra, "Pluribus"

Will win: LaNasa

BABY JANE DOE!!

Drama supporting actor

Patrick Ball, "The Pitt"

Billy Crudup, "The Morning Show"

Shawn Hatosy, "The Pitt"

Gerran Howell, "The Pitt"

Jack Lowden, "Slow Horses"

Tom Pelphrey, "Task"

Carlos-Manuel Vesga, "Pluribus"

Will win: Pelphrey

Could surprise: Ball

This category is crowded with actors from "The Pitt," but, unlike supporting actress, there's no clear favorite. Hatosy won an Emmy last year for guest actor and viewers love the confident (and, on one occasion, memorably shirtless) Dr. Abbot so much that there's talk of a night shift "Pitt" spinoff. Ball's Dr. Langdon had a meaty storyline, returning to the ER and making amends (or, at least, trying to) with his co-workers for stealing drugs. And Howell is Huckleberry, likable underdog and farm boy charmer. A splintered vote could open the door for Pelphrey, extraordinary as the deeply flawed single dad on "Task."

Limited series

"All Her Fault"

"The Beast in Me"

"Beef"

"DTF St. Louis"

"Love Story"

Will win: "DTF St. Louis"

Could surprise: "Beef"

The television academy moved a few key limited series categories off the Primetime Emmys this year, presenting them Sept. 5 and 6 at the Creative Arts Emmys. "DTF St. Louis" had reason to celebrate, with David Harbour and Linda Cardellini winning supporting honors and series creator Steven Conrad taking writing and directing. If the idea is to make the Emmys even less suspenseful, mission accomplished. The series win for "DTF" is now a foregone conclusion.

Limited series / movie actress

Claire Danes, "The Beast in Me"

Sally Field, "Remarkably Bright Creatures"

Carey Mulligan, "Beef"

Sarah Pidgeon, "Love Story"

Sarah Snook, "All Her Fault"

Will win: Mulligan

Could surprise: Field

The "Beef" quartet — Mulligan and Oscar Isaac playing striving, bickering millennials, Charles Melton and Cailee Spaeney as their younger, equally desperate counterparts — split their submissions between lead and supporting. Mulligan should win for her darkly funny, cringe-inducing turn, though Snook, Pidgeon and sentimental favorite Field are all in play too.

Limited series / movie actor

Riz Ahmed, "Bait"

Jason Bateman, "Black Rabbit"

Charlie Hunnam, "Monster: The Ed Gein Story"

Oscar Isaac, "Beef"

Matthew Rhys, "The Beast in Me"

Will win: Isaac

Could surprise: Rhys

Look, we all love Rhys, but the writing did him no favors in "The Beast in Me." Maybe the goodwill from "Widow's Bay" could power him to a second win, but "Beef" gives Isaac more room to display his range. That explosive throwdown scene between Isaac and Mulligan in the opening episode might be enough to win them both Emmys.

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