NEW YORK — Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. has a legendary New Jersey Republican political name and a reputation as a fitting, if uninspiring, representative for his NJ-07 district spanning verdant New York suburbs and rural horse country.

So how has Kean landed in such deep political trouble that Democratic rival Rebecca Bennett, a military veteran, mom and healthcare executive, is widely considered a strong favorite to unseat him with the midterms looming just a month away?

The answer is two-fold, pundits say. Kean hurt himself badly by his unexplained disappearance from public view for months, which he only later attributed to treatment for depression.

But Kean is also being dragged down by a historically bad political environment for Republicans in a midterm with president Trump at historically low approval ratings, a looming national blue wave that is especially potent in affluent and well-educated suburbs like those in NJ-07.

“It’s a one-two punch for Kean,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “He saddled with the same unpopular president as other Republicans. But he’s also got the additional problem that what’s fresh on voters minds is his long absence and the issues around it.”

A Jersey political scion

Kean doesn’t have to introduce himself to many NJ-07 voters. He’s the son of a popular two-term Garden State governor and the descendant of William Livingston, a signer of the Constitution and the state’s first elected governor.

Not terribly gregarious, Kean shuns reporters, campaign rallies and back-slapping with colleagues. But his social media feed is dotted with some recent small gatherings at firehouses and community events.

He portrays himself on the stump as a loyal but occasionally critical ally of Trump with deep roots in the western New Jersey district dotted with quaint hamlets, picturesque Delaware River tourist towns and multimillion-dollar mansions off the exits along Interstate 78.

He claims to have played a key role in winning GOP support for raising the SALT deduction from $10,000 to $40,000 in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, even though other moderate Republicans were more outspoken and grabbed most of the credit.

Kean also recently announced he opposes a Trump administration plan to convert a warehouse in scenic Roxbury, New Jersey, into a sprawling immigration detention center, although he kept quiet for months about the issue.

He says Bennett would be little more than a rubber stamp for progressive Democrats and accuses her of being a wealthy carpetbagger with few strong ties to the district

“You have not heard my opponent once tonight differ from the average Democratic member of Congress, who always votes the party line,” he said at their Sept. 27 debate.

Bennett countered by telling a moderator she wouldn’t vote for progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., for president if she ran.

Kean strongly backed Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran, a questionable move considering how unpopular the war is with voters across the political spectrum and how his survival could depend on winning votes of some independents and Republicans who disagree with Trump.

“Kean is facing a bunch of headwinds, some self-inflicted.” said Adam Carlson, a pollster and Democratic strategist. "He’s running in a district that Trump only won by 1 point and he has not put much distance between himself and the president.”

A challenger reminiscent of Sherrill

Bennett, a mother of two, has proven to be a formidable opponent for Kean. She easily won what looked like a tricky, crowded Democratic primary and has raised boatloads of money.

She leads Kean by 5% in the only published poll of the district.

A 10-year veteran Navy helicopter pilot, she highlights her military service in ways that are reminiscent of Gov. Mikie Sherrill, who enjoyed a landslide win in the governor’s race last year and won NJ-07 by about 2%. Her campaign site includes photos of her flying missions, the slogan “Ready to Serve” and a video of her transitioning to “mom duty” with her family.

Significantly, it barely mentions that she’s a Democrat, and she rarely mentions her party affiliation on the stump or at last week’s first and only scheduled debate.

That’s likely because the district is historically deeply Republican turf and has only started shifting left in recent years. So she’s banking on winning the votes of those who have voted for GOP candidates before but have soured on Trump’s MAGA takeover of the party and remain wary of partisan Democrats.

“She has to win voters in some pretty Republican areas, so you don’t want to poke Republicans in the eye,” Rasmussen said.

An unexplained absence

The race was never going to be a layup for Kean, who won reelection by just 3% in 2024. But he made things much worse with his his long absence from Congress, which many feel he handled poorly.

Instead of announcing that he was undergoing medical treatment, Kean simply disappeared from view.

When reporters eventually started asking where he was or why he hadn’t been seen, his spokespeople provided no answers. Unfounded rumors about his health and whether he would be fit to run for reelection spread unchecked.

It didn’t help that Kean’s legally mandated financial disclosure statements showed he had made stock trades during the same time.

Kean eventually returned to Capitol Hill and gave a well-received speech that explained he had sought treatment for depression, saying few “understand how powerful this illness can be.” But he didn’t explain why he didn’t speak earlier about his situation.

With the bad headlines swirling around Kean, Bennett outraised the incumbent by a nearly 3-1 margin in the second quarter of the year, a sign she has the political winds at her back, although Kean has raised more money overall in the election cycle.

Blue wave rising?

Political pundits and non-partisan analysts question whether the specifics of Kean and Bennett’s campaigns will make much of a difference in what is shaping up as a historically bad year for Republicans of any stripe.

NJ-07 is one of the most affluent and best-educated battleground districts in the nation, with 61% of adults making more than $100,000 a year and 54% holding at least a college degree.

“This district is the heartland of the kind of place that Republicans have struggled in the Trump era, with very well-educated and affluent voters,” Rasmussen said. “It’s ground zero for this trend, which makes it very tough for Kean.”

Trump’s unpopularity has turbocharged a longstanding shift towards Democrats among well-educated and wealthy voters, making it far less comfortable turf than before for down-ballot Republicans.

Kean even won an unwanted spot on a published list of a handful of “almost cooked” GOP lawmakers who are considered to have almost no chance of winning reelection.

One reason strategists from both parties are watching Kean’s race so closely is that it could be a canary in the coal mine for Republican problems in similar districts across the nation. That list includes Rep. Mike Lawler’s Westchester County-based district, which is the only other congressional seat in the NYC metro area that is considered in serious danger of flipping in the midterms.

If Democrats take control of the House as projected, Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn is poised to become the first ever Black speaker of the House.

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