Journalism is the 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite. How often does the favorite win?

It’s been seven years since the post-time favorite won the Kentucky Derby.

Justify — who went on to become horse racing’s 13th, and most recent, Triple Crown champion — was the last race-time favorite to win the Derby when he did so in 2018 at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

Since then, six post-time favorites have entered the starting gate and failed to win the Run for the Roses. This happened again last year, when post-time favorite Fierceness ran 15th in the Derby.

Will fortunes change for the favorite on Saturday in the 151st edition of the Grade 1, $5 million Kentucky Derby?

This year’s post-time favorite is likely to be Journalism, the Santa Anita Derby winner who enters the Kentucky Derby on a four-race winning streak. Trained by Michael McCarthy and to be ridden by Italian jockey Umberto Rispoli, Journalism was made the morning-line favorite at 3-1 odds following Saturday’s post-position draw at Churchill Downs.

“I’ve been fortunate enough to work for Todd Pletcher for 11 years and change, nearly 12 years. During my time with him, I lived here in Louisville for nearly six years, so I was fortunate enough to walk over to the paddock with 20 participants in the Kentucky Derby,” said McCarthy, who made his Kentucky Derby debut as a solo trainer last year with Endlessly (ninth).

“... I’ve seen it attacked from all different ways, with favorites, with long shots. You pretty much know what’s expected of you. As the week goes on here, things will start ramping up. Plenty of patrons on the backside, plenty of promotion, a lot going on.”

For his career, Journalism has four wins from five career starts. He’s never raced outside the state of California. Rispoli, the jockey, is 0 for 2 all time in the Run for the Roses. Rispoli rode Endlessly last year and Brooklyn Strong (14th) in 2021.

“Journalism will make his way to the paddock a few times, he’ll school. We’ll get him used to that, to the large crowd, the music, the humidity, maybe even the rain. We’ll see what’s coming this week,” McCarthy added. “But these are all things as a trainer that I’m sort of responsible for. I just try to make sure that (Journalism) is as well schooled as possible for everything that goes into Saturday’s event. Some of it is almost circus-like with the amount of people and the amount of noise.”

The betting odds can and will shift ahead of Saturday’s 6:57 p.m. post time for the Derby, but there’s a good chance that Journalism will remain the favorite when the horses are called to the starting gate.

Other candidates to potentially be the post-time favorite for the Derby include Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty (5-1 morning-line odds) and Arkansas Derby winner Sandman (6-1 morning-line odds).

Here’s a look at how the race-time favorite has historically performed in the Kentucky Derby.

Information used is from the pari-mutuel wager era (since 1908).

How often does the favorite win the Kentucky Derby?

The Kentucky Derby has been run 117 times since 1908, and the post-time favorite has won the race 40 times. That’s a success rate of 34.2%.

This includes instances when there’s been co-favorites at race time. For example, the 1973 Kentucky Derby that was won by Secretariat counts, as Secretariat was the co-favorite for that Derby with Angle Light (who finished 10th).

As such, Derby favorites have won the race slightly more than one-third of the time since 1908.

The race-time Kentucky Derby favorite won six straight editions of the race from 2013-2018, but none since.

While we’re currently in a drought when it comes to the post-time favorite going on to win the Derby, this is far from the lengthiest such occurrence. From 1980 through 1999, 20 editions of the Kentucky Derby came and went without the favorite winning.

While the Derby favorite hasn’t won in the last six editions of the race, several have come close.

Improbable was fourth in 2019. Tiz the Law ran second in 2020. Essential Quality was third in 2021. Epicenter had the lead in the stretch before finishing second behind historic long shot Rich Strike in 2022. Angel of Empire ran third as the post-time favorite in 2023.

The only clunker run by a favorite in the last six editions of the Derby was Fierceness (15th) last year.

Only 11 horses have finished worse than 12th after leaving the starting gate as the Kentucky Derby favorite since 1908: Cherry Pie (20th in 1923), Picketer (15th in 1923), Bay Beauty (13th in 1929), Proud Appeal (18th in 1981), Golden Derby (21st in 1981), Total Departure (20th in 1983), Althea (19th in 1984), Demons Begone (DNF in 1987), Serena’s Song (16th in 1995), Friesan Fire (18th in 2009) and Fierceness (15th in 2024).

Kentucky Derby favorites usually finish in the top three

It’s probably no surprise that one of the safest bets to make on the Kentucky Derby is to wager on the favorite finishing in the money.

In the 117 editions of the Kentucky Derby in the pari-mutuel wagering era (since 1908), the Derby favorite has finished in the top three on 74 occasions. That’s an in-the-money success rate of 63.3%. This also includes instances when two horses were co-favorites for the Derby at post time.

If nothing else, having a financial stake in the Derby favorite will likely keep you interested for the entirety of the race.

Since 1908, the only Derby favorite at race time to not finish the event was Demons Begone in 1987.

How are Journalism’s chances shaping up for Saturday’s race?

“If anybody can handle the pressure, it’s Michael McCarthy,” Scott Hazelton, a horse racing host and reporter for FanDuel TV, told the Herald-Leader about the favorite’s trainer. “He’s a very soft-spoken guy, straight-to-the-point guy. He’s on top of everything.”