It's rain and clouds for the 151st Kentucky Derby. Will this year be the soggiest?

Jackie Starkey and Aaron Mudd, Lexington Herald-Leader on May 3, 2025

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A cloudy sky and cover of rainfall may dampen Saturday’s 151st Kentucky Derby, but it’s unlikely to break precipitation records.

Light to moderate rain was falling across Louisville, Ky., much of Saturday morning, with the temperature around a moderate 58 degrees Fahrenheit as of 11 a.m. ET. As of noon Saturday, Louisville had seen a total of 0.29 inches of rainfall.

Samantha Wilson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Louisville, said it’s not likely this year’s Derby will break the all-time record in 2018.

The latest NWS forecast shows another quarter to half an inch of new rain expected to fall over the course of the day. Rain showers, and possible thunderstorms, are likely to continue through 5 p.m. Post time for the 151st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville is 6:57 p.m..

Here’s a look at what the latest forecast has in store for today’s big race and how it compares to the wettest on record.

What does the forecast say for the 151st Kentucky Derby?

The forecast as of noon Saturday, anticipates more showers and possibly a thunderstorm in Louisville before 5 p.m., with a chance of more rain and thunderstorms after that time.

In a Saturday morning forecast, Lexington-based WKYT chief meterologist Chris Bailey said rainfall totals in some parts of Central Kentucky could reach between 1 and 3 inches and also warned of the possibility of storms.

Rainy conditions also played into Friday’s 151st Kentucky Oaks. It made for a mucky Oaks track, where morning-line favorite No. 11 Good Cheer swept the field of 3-year-old fillies.

What is the wettest Kentucky Derby on record?

Historical data from the NWS in Louisville show Derbygoers to the 144th running of the race in 2018 experienced the wettest Derby on record. The data is for the entire calendar day with official observations for Louisville as a whole, rather than just Churchill Downs.

A total of 3.15 inches of rain fell on Derby Day May 5, 2018. What’s more, the bulk of it fell in the afternoon and early evening – 2.85 inches – right around race time as horses dealt with a sloppy track.

That’s followed by May 11, 1918, in the days before the race was held on the first Saturday of May. On that date, showers and thunderstorms dumped a total of 2.31 inches of rain on Louisville. An inch fell in the afternoon and early evening, and track conditions were muddy, NWS data show.

Here are some other Derby dates with significant rainfall amounts, according to the NWS:

— May 5, 2012: 1.46 inches total

— May 1, 2010: 1.32 inches total

— May 4, 2013: 0.87 inches total.

Wet conditions are somewhat frequent, with 48% of race days seeing some rainfall. Last year, the weather service recorded only trace amounts on Derby Day.

Saturday’s wet track will be new ground for many in the running. Only six of the 19 horses in the field this year have experience running on muddy or sloppy tracks. The favorite, Journalism, winner of the Santa Anita Derby, is not among them.

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