Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally of President Donald Trump in Latin America and a divisive figure across the region, is facing mounting legal troubles in his home country as Brazil’s Supreme Court threatened to order his arrest over alleged violations of a court-imposed social media ban.

The Supreme Court issued the warning despite Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports starting Aug. 1 unless the South American country halts the prosecution of Bolsonaro.

Florida, which imports billions of dollars in goods from Brazil each year, could be hit hard by the 50% tariffs. The Sunshine State relies on Brazil for key commodities like coffee and orange juice. Trade experts warn that the tariffs could significantly raise prices for everyday consumers and spark retaliatory moves.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the judge overseeing the case against Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election, issued the warning Monday evening, giving Bolsonaro’s legal team 24 hours to explain why their client breached a court order.

The showdown between Bolsonaro and the judiciary in Brazil has triggered an international backlash, including dramatic moves by Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio — both of whom have framed the case as political persecution

On Friday, Moraes had ordered Bolsonaro to wear an electronic ankle monitor and banned him from using social media, citing allegations that he had solicited help from Trump and others to interfere in Brazil’s democratic process. The order was upheld by a court panel.

In a defiant interview with Reuters later that day, Bolsonaro called the restrictions “cowardice” and pledged to continue speaking to the press, suggesting he would not be silenced — despite the explicit ban on any digital dissemination of his remarks.

By Monday, Bolsonaro had seemingly crossed a line. After meeting with congressional allies in Brasília, the former president gave remarks to journalists, publicly showing his ankle bracelet for the first time. The footage — later reposted by supporters and news outlets to social media — appears to have triggered Moraes’ latest legal response.

“The dissemination of audio, video, or transcripts of interviews on any third-party social media platform is prohibited,” Moraes clarified in a written decision. He also attached screenshots showing Bolsonaro’s speech being shared online.

The escalating legal saga has drawn furious responses from Bolsonaro’s allies in the United States, including Trump and Rubio, both of whom have taken unprecedented steps in defense of the former president.

Last week, Rubio announced immediate visa bans on Justice de Moraes and his family, calling the court proceedings a “witch hunt.” Trump went further. In a letter dated July 9, he announced his intent to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports starting Aug. 1 — unless Brazil halts Bolsonaro’s prosecution.

Trump’s letter to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva claimed Brazil’s trade policies created “unsustainable trade deficits.” But official U.S. data contradicts that assertion. In fact, America has run a trade surplus with Brazil for 18 years — most recently totaling $7.4 billion.

Critics argue that Trump’s real motivation isn’t trade at all. In the first paragraph of his letter, he blasts Brazil’s treatment of Bolsonaro, calling it “an international disgrace” and demanding that the trial be canceled.

Ironically, Trump’s tariffs could backfire. Brazil’s cattle and coffee industries, both Bolsonaro strongholds, stand to suffer most from the trade war. Meanwhile, Lula’s leftist government is using the conflict to rally national support and position itself as the defender of Brazil’s sovereignty.

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