New year, same problems for Trump with control of Congress on the line in 2026

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is poised to head into the new year facing several political and economic headwinds that could hamstring Republicans in the coming midterm elections.

As his poll numbers sag and a stubborn economy continues to frustrate voters, Trump is expected to depart Washington on Friday to spend Christmas and New Year’s at his South Florida resort.

The president and some senior aides have promised a big 2026, but the list of headaches grew this week with Trump making what even some Republicans viewed as offensive remarks about the late Hollywood director Rob Reiner, whose son was charged this week in the killing of his parents. And that was before a Tuesday report in Vanity Fair in which White House chief of staff Susie Wiles acknowledged disagreeing with Trump on several policy matters. Then there was a perception among White House officials that the president needed to give the country a holiday season pep talk, leading to his Wednesday night prime-time address and a Friday night rally in battleground North Carolina.

Next year, Trump and his political team face what could be an uphill battle for Republicans to retain control of the House. The party was walloped last month in off-year elections across the country. And, like other recent chiefs executive, Trump saw his party suffer big losses during his first midterms in 2018. That trend seems to be on his mind as a crucial election-year beckons.

“For whatever reason, and nobody’s been able to give me an answer, when you win the presidency, you seem to lose the midterms, even if you win the presidency by a lot, and you do a great job as president,” he said during a Dec. 10 event at the White House. Trump still predicted GOP victories next fall, saying, “We should win because we’re doing great. The economy is roaring.”

Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at North Carolina’s Catawba College, said “pocketbook issues rule in a voter’s electoral calculus.”

“Combine the state of economic being — affordability this year — and the president’s lack of approval across the board and you get what many of us are expecting to be a pretty solid swing against the Republicans towards the Democrats in November,” Bitzer said in a Dec. 9 email. “A year out, and with this kind of environment, things don’t look good for Republican control of Congress.”

The latest House race ratings from Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales lists eight Republican-held seats and two Democratic ones as Toss-ups. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to flip the chamber next year.

A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris survey found a majority of registered voters (52%) saying the country was on the wrong track, while 39% said it was on the right track. On the health of the economy, 53% said it was on the wrong track, while 47% picked right track.

A RealClearPolitics average of recent polling as of Wednesday put Trump’s job approval rating at 43.6%, with 53.3% disapproving.

Paying the price

As the year draws to a close, some of Trump’s top economic aides are referring to the administration’s plan to pare down prices and rev up the still-sluggish economy as a long game. They calculate that the fruits of Trump’s policies will ripen next year — just in time for the midterms.

“As we go into next year, don’t forget that all the people who have no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, who are going to be able to deduct the interest on their car loan if they buy a car, all those things are kicking in big time,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox News on Dec. 4.

But attempts to craft an affordability message that resonates with voters could face challenges, according to a key Trump ally in the Senate.

“The price increase is permanent, in many of these cases. Some of these prices will never go down,” Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said in a brief Dec. 4 interview, while acknowledging that affordability was a “real issue.”

The president and his team must also continue to deal with the fallout from his global tariffs. Last week, the administration announced up to $12 billion in “bridge” payments to U.S. farmers who have been hit hard by Trump’s trade war.

Voters typically turn against large federal bailouts, but Trump, during a Dec. 8 event at the White House with a group of farmers, would not rule out cutting more checks.

“We’re going to make them so strong that it will be indeed a golden age for farmers,” he said when asked about a potential second payout.

As voters continue expressing dissatisfaction with Trump’s economic and trade policies, his own messaging about the import duties’ impact on American farmers and consumers likely will be a challenge next year.

“The tariffs are taking in hundreds of billions of dollars, and we’re giving some up to the farmers because they were mistreated by other countries for, I don’t know, maybe right reasons, maybe wrong reasons,” he said at the Dec. 8 event.

What was left unsaid was that pain from his tariffs made the “bridge” payments to the farmers necessary.

‘Year for Main Street’

Still, Trump and top administration officials say their plans for 2026 will be even bigger than what has gone down this year.

“This is America’s 250th anniversary,” Trump said on the red carpet before the Kennedy Center honors on Dec. 7. “Next year’s right around the corner, and that’s gonna be big.”

At a Cabinet meeting five days earlier, the president said 2026 was “projected to be the largest tax refund season ever” as provisions from this year’s sweeping tax and spending law kick in.

Cabinet officials who’ve been praised by Trump throughout the year have made similar predictions.

“In 2026, we are going to see very substantial tax refunds in the first quarter. So the best way to address the affordability crisis is to give Americans more money in their pockets, which is what this bill has done,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the Dec. 2 meeting.

Bessent also promised “real wage increases” in 2026, which he said Americans would view as a “fantastic year — taxes, deregulation, energy certainty.”

“So not only are we going to have great growth, but it’s going to be low-inflationary growth. And [the] stock market, obviously, is falling, but next year is going to be the year for Main Street, as all this kicks in,” he added.

But if the predicted economic recovery doesn’t materialize, the political headwinds Republicans faced this year may end up looking “like a gust compared to a full-force gale in 2026,” according to Bitzer, the Catawba College professor.

“And if the Democrats do manage to capture control of one chamber,” he added, “the storms that will brew in 2027 will make this year seem like a walk in the park.”