PITTSBURGH — The Pirates have had enough problems this season. No need to create more, especially relative to Paul Skenes.

Their ace struggled in his last start, walking four and allowing three home runs Thursday against the Cubs. But let's try to have some perspective here. Maybe even a reality check.

Thirty starts into an incredible major league career, I'm pretty sure Skenes isn't turning into a pumpkin. In fact, I know he's not, because this same stretch of results has happened before.

In Skenes' first seven starts after the 2024 MLB All-Star break, he had a 2.74 ERA in 42 2/3 innings, with 13 walks, 47 strikeouts, a .199 batting average against, a .582 OPS against and 2.93 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).

Skenes' first seven starts this season: 2.74 ERA, 42 2/3 innings, eight walks, 41 strikeouts, .199 batting average against, .582 OPS against and 2.99 FIP.

Yeah, it's weird.

It's also why I'm not about to freak out over a slight drop in velocity or how Skenes is pitching — which, by the way, isn't being dictated to him by the Pirates, as much as some seem intent on believing.

Before we get to that, though, I'm not done with the numbers that prove how absurd it is to feel anything more than meh after his last outing.

— Expected batting average during Skenes' two seasons, with 2024 listed first: .193 and .197. The same for expected slugging percentage: .297 and .296. There's no discernible difference there.

— If you look at average exit velocity — how hard balls are being hit off Skenes — that number has dropped from 87.8 mph last year to 86.3 in 2025 (which puts him in the 86th percentile across MLB).

— When it comes to hard-hit rate — percentage of balls put in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater — Skenes has seen that number drop from 36.3% to 30.6%.

But ... he allowed three whole earned runs and has gone 3-3 through seven starts, so clearly the Pirates must have infected him with something.

Other than not being good enough at times around him, no.

They're also not telling him how to pitch.

Think about what we've learned thus far with Skenes. Good kid. Intense. Thinks about everything. (Good example: controlling the running game). Military background. Already has a key role in the MLB Players' Association. Smart and curious. Strong in his beliefs on how to pitch. Understands analytics and advanced pitching data. Not cocky but also doesn't lack confidence in himself.

This is the type of kid who's going to kowtow to what the Pirates say? Just stop it, please.

Skenes won't discount anything that's said. He'll be respectful. But he's almost assuredly going to listen to his people — and the Pirates have been perfectly fine with that. They knew the deal when they drafted him.

Making a big deal out of this also discounts how Skenes has been trying to pitch. (Among other things like the fact that he's still only 22. I'm also fairly confident he's human.)

Skenes this winter professed a desire to pitch deeper into games and be more efficient with pitches. If there was something to nitpick about his incredible 2024, it's that occasionally he used more bullets than he needed to — great for strikeouts but a trend that, within modern baseball, will bounce you by the sixth or seventh inning.

Take a little off. Be more precise with control. For the younger generation, it might be a good time to Google Greg Maddux. So many incredible quotes and anecdotes.

One of my favorites involves Maddux talking about watching cars on the highway — you can't tell the difference between 90 and 95 mph. There's also this famous quote: "Velocity will get you drafted, but it's not going to help once you are drafted. You have to learn how to pitch."

This dude is learning how to become even more of a pitcher. We're also talking about 98.8 mph to 98.0 through seven starts in April of his first big league season.

Skenes wants to pitcher deeper in games and cut down on walks. Good. He's done the latter, slicing his walk rate from 6.2% as a rookie to 2.8% this year. There's still work to do with using fewer pitches, as he's still at about 16 per inning and between 65% and 66% for strikes.

There's also talk about Skenes' arm slot — which, yes, has been 3 degrees lower.

Three. Degrees.

Didn't know I had to start bringing a protractor to PNC Park.

One truth about pitching, whether you're listening to the Skenes or the Pirates, involves tunneling: throwing from the same arm slot to further deceive the hitter.

Not saying that's why his arm angle is a little lower, but it's certainly possible.

Such small tweaks in velocity or arm angle also aren't reasons for a decline or to get upset.

Gerrit Cole had a 5.40 ERA and allowed nine home runs through his first seven starts last year. In August of his 2023 Cy Young Award season, Cole pitched to a 4.06 ERA, allowing seven home runs. Chris Sale, the actual NL Cy Young Award winner last year, had a 2.95 ERA through his first seven starts of 2024.

Skenes had a not-so-great start Thursday against arguably the best offense in baseball. His command wasn't great, he needed a double play to escape a three-walk third, and he missed with a few splinkers up.

"In the bullpen, I was a little all over the place and then went out in the game and was a little all over the place," Skenes said, adding, "I wasn't super sharp."

I couldn't care less. Skenes will be fine.

His velocity and arm angle didn't have people worried when he was striking out nine Dodgers on April 25 or when he went seven strong (behind zero run support) against the Guardians.

Are there ways Skenes can improve? Absolutely. He'll be the first to admit that.

But freaking out over this feels like a case of misplaced Pirates frustration. Let the kid do his thing without slathering it in negativity. There's been plenty of that already.

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