As is always the case, this Kentucky Derby won’t lack for storylines.

The biggest will obviously be the return of trainer Bob Baffert, who has six Derby victories, still tied for the most all time after his seventh was stripped in 2021 following the disqualification of Medina Spirit due to a medical violation. That led to a Churchill Downs suspension of more than three years for the Hall of Fame trainer who often dominates the spotlight this time of year.

Now, Baffert is back in Louisville, and he brought two horses with him. But he’ll have only one in the starting gate.

Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the 3-1 morning-line choice, a California-based colt who has done little wrong in his young career. Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty (5-1) and Arkansas Derby winner Sandman (6-1) are next in the opening odds, rounding out the clear top three in this field.

But plenty of others have a realistic shot at the roses, too.

Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez was seemingly Baffert’s best chance at a seventh Derby winner, but that colt was scratched from the race Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square is likely to get plenty of local support and Japanese contender Luxor Cafe adds an extra dose of intrigue.

There’s also Baeza, a lightly raced colt who nearly knocked off Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, clearly has a ton of talent but didn’t end up with enough qualifying points to make the field. He needed a horse to scratch by Friday morning to make it into the Derby starting gate, and Rodriguez’s defection now puts him in the field.

And once that starting gate opens, expect a rush to the front.

While some recent editions of the Derby have been met with the question of who will challenge for the early lead, it looks like this year will be a case of how many employ that strategy.

This field is stacked with horses who like to be on the lead in the early going — long shots Citizen Bull, Neoequos, East Avenue and Owen Almighty among them — and that could be a recipe for a hot, unsustainable pace that sets up nicely for the favorites who prefer to make late moves from the back of the pack.

How will it all unfold? We won’t know for sure until they hit the finish line, but here’s a handicapping look at each horse in the Derby field, including info on the best bets for Saturday.

1. Citizen Bull (20-1)

Need to know: The 2-year-old champion in this group won the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for trainer Bob Baffert and got off to a fine start to 2025 with a wire-to-wire victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, a race he controlled from the beginning and one in which he was never seriously challenged. He was seemingly right where he wanted to be two months later in the Santa Anita Derby yet was ultimately beaten soundly — nearly 10 lengths — by Journalism. He had no excuse in that race, leaving a bad impression to wrap the Derby prep season. All six of his career starts have come in California, and he’s taken the early lead in his last four. The 1 post has been a nightmare in these massive fields. Ferdinand, in 1986, was the last winner from that spot, and it’s been eight years since any horse has finished in the top three from that starting position. Citizen Bull’s dad is Into Mischief, the reigning six-time top sire in North America and father of back-to-back Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun.

A good bet? If he doesn’t break well, he’s done. Even if he does, it’s difficult to see him in the mix at the very end.

2. Neoequos (30-1)

Need to know: The pacesetter in the Fountain of Youth Stakes was in a good position to stay on the lead at the end but didn’t, instead getting beat nearly 3 lengths by Sovereignty, who rallied from last place to win that race. Next time out, he sat right off a fair pace in the Florida Derby and again had every chance for a victory there. This time, Tappan Street — off the Derby trail due to injury — and Sovereignty ran him down in the stretch, relegating him to third place. The Florida-bred’s career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure is tied for second-lowest among the 16 American dirt runners in this field. Luis Saez, who has no Derby wins in 11 career starts but did cross the finish line first aboard the DQ’d Maximum Security in 2019, will ride Neoequos for the first time Saturday. All seven of Neoequos’ races have come at Gulfstream Park for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.

A good bet? Another one who needs to be up front early, might have trouble getting there and probably won’t last until the end if he does.

3. Final Gambit (30-1)

Need to know: This will be the first start on dirt for Final Gambit, who has raced three times on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park and once on the Churchill Downs grass. His typical style is to come from the very back of the pack, and he did that with aplomb in the Jeff Ruby Steaks last time out, going from last place in a 12-horse field on the final turn to a 3 1/2-length winner in the stretch after a way-wide run at the end. That was one of the most visually impressive wins during this prep season, and he’s been working fine — though not spectacularly — over the Churchill dirt since then. Two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox is in charge of this colt, and jockey Luan Machado — aboard for all three Turfway starts — will ride in his first Derby.

A good bet? Nearly half of this field has 30-1 odds on the morning line, and this is the most intriguing of that group. Don’t leave him out of your exotic wagers, and — at anything close to 30-1 — he’s worth consideration as a win bet. But don’t look for him near the front until the very end.

4. Rodriguez (SCRATCHED)

Need to know: Bob Baffert’s top contender for Saturday’s race was scratched Thursday due to a “slightly sensitive foot bruise” that is not expected to sideline him long but will keep Rodriguez out of the Kentucky Derby. His ownership group said that the Wood Memorial winner will be pointed to the Preakness Stakes on May 17 instead. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith was set to ride Rodriguez on Saturday, and the son of Kentucky Derby winner Authentic had been bet down to 8-1 in the early wagering after his odds were set at 12-1 on the morning line.

5. American Promise (30-1)

Need to know: Didn’t show anything in the Southwest Stakes (seventh of nine) and was perfectly placed behind Magnitude in the Risen Star Stakes before fading to fifth. (Magnitude, who is off the Derby trail, ran a 108 Beyer in that one.) The son of Triple Crown winner Justify showed his promise next time out with an eye-popping, 7 3/4-length victory in the Virginia Derby after dueling with the heavy favorite up front at a fast pace. He set a track record and earned a 95 Beyer for that run, which came at 1 1/8 miles but required only one turn. He’s trained by four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas, who will turn 90 in November, and will be ridden by 31-year-old Derby rookie Nik Juarez. With nine career starts, American Promise is the most seasoned racehorse in this field. He had three starts at Churchill Downs last year, finishing second, fourth and eighth.

A good bet? He dominated his last race, but the competition here is much, much tougher, and he’ll need another leap forward to keep up. There are more interesting long shots.

6. Admire Daytona (30-1)

Need to know: One of two foreign-based contenders in this field, Admire Daytona started the year with a maiden victory in his native Japan and then was no match for Luxor Cafe in the Hyacinth Stakes, finishing fourth in that race, more than 3 lengths back. Rather than a rematch — Luxor Cafe also beat him in November — the son of Drefong left his homeland and earned a gritty win in the UAE Derby, getting a perfect rail ride, setting the pace amid plenty of pressure, losing the lead in the stretch and regaining it just before the wire. So far, 20 horses that competed in the UAE Derby — including 14 winners — have tried making the trip to the Kentucky Derby. None had finished better than fifth until Forever Young was third in last year’s race. French jockey Christophe Lemaire, who was on two of those previous UAE Derby winners, rode Admire Daytona for both of his wins this year and will be aboard again Saturday.

A good bet? Forever Young almost ended the UAE Derby curse — part of a three-horse photo finish for the roses last year — but this colt is no Forever Young. Don’t expect to see him there at the end.

7. Luxor Cafe (15-1)

Need to know: The other international contender in this field, Luxor Cafe is the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and has won four consecutive races in his native Japan. His victory in the Hyacinth Stakes in February was good enough, but it was his most recent race — a 5-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes, making right turns instead of lefts — that really caught the eye. In that one, Luxor Cafe showed off a stunning turn of foot into the stretch — his acceleration there was perhaps as impressive as any horse in any Derby prep race this year — and rolled home under jockey Joao Moreira, who rode him for the first time that day and will be back aboard Saturday for his Derby debut. Luxor Cafe’s style is to come from further back in the field, so don’t look for him to be amid the pace battle. Last year, Forever Young became the first horse on record to finish in the top three in the Derby after running exclusively on foreign soil before the race.

A good bet? Always hesitant to back the international shippers, but Luxor Cafe’s last race was a visual treat, and there might be more where that came from. So if you like him, you’ll get no arguments here.

8. Journalism (3-1)

Need to know: The Kentucky Derby favorite has won his past four races — after finishing third in his career debut last October — and his two starts this year have resulted in the two fastest Beyer Speed Figures in this field. First, a season-high 108 in the San Felipe Stakes, where he looked very strong on the gallop out after winning that race by nearly 2 lengths. And then, in the Santa Anita Derby, he settled in professionally off the pace, worked out of a little trouble in the final turn and flew home again, beating Baeza by three quarters of a length. So far, he’s done no wrong. One knock: both fields this year — and in four of his five career races — featured only five horses. He’s also run all five career starts in California, though he’s won at three different tracks. California-based trainer Michael McCarthy is back for his second Derby after finishing ninth with Endlessly last year. Journalism’s sire is Curlin, and his damsire is Uncle Mo — two former champions.

A good bet? The deserving favorite? For sure. Most likely to finish in the money? Yep. But here’s thinking someone else in this field turns in a career-best performance and has enough to beat him.

9. Burnham Square (12-1)

Need to know: The only gelding in this year’s Kentucky Derby field, Burnham Square is another top contender who prefers to come from the back of the pack. The son of Liam’s Map beat Tappan Street — the eventual Florida Derby winner — in the Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 1 from last place and was still running at the end in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, where he was ultimately beaten 3 lengths by Sovereignty next time out. Last month at Keeneland, he rallied again from last place in a seven-horse field to beat East Avenue by a nose in the Blue Grass Stakes, running a career-best 96 Beyer there. That was his first race under jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who won last year’s Kentucky Derby and is among the all-time leading jockeys at Churchill Downs. He’s been training well in Louisville for Ian Wilkes, who has a slew of major victories but only one previous Derby starter (McCraken, eighth place in 2017). No Blue Grass winner has won the Kentucky Derby since Strike the Gold in 1991.

A good bet? Of the contenders with odds of shorter than 20-1, I like this one the least. A few of the other closers look more enticing.

10. Grande (20-1)

Need to know: With only three career starts, he’s the most lightly raced horse in this field and the only one that didn’t run as a 2-year-old. For a long time, Regret (in 1915) was the last horse to win the Derby with just three previous starts, before Big Brown (2008), Justify (2018) and Mage (2023) did it. Justify and Mage also won without having raced at 2 — the first such Derby winners since Apollo in 1882 — so those times are changing. Grande certainly has the connections. He’s the only starter this year for Todd Pletcher, who has two Derby wins in a record 65 tries. John Velazquez has ridden three Derby champs (and was aboard Medina Spirit when he finished first in 2021.) Grande, another son of the great Curlin, won his first two starts from the lead and then overcame a way-wide run in the Wood Memorial to finish in second behind Rodriguez. He was beaten 3 1/2 lengths that day, but — with no shot to catch the winner — it appeared he settled for that place, perhaps leaving more in the tank for this weekend.

A good bet? What he lacks in experience, he has in talent, and the combination of connections can’t be overlooked. One to watch. Still, this seems like too big an ask at this stage in his career.

11. Flying Mohawk (30-1)

Need to know: Like Final Gambit — the horse that beat him in the Jeff Ruby Steaks — Flying Mohawk has never run on dirt. In fact, the Jeff Ruby was his first race on a synthetic surface, with his first five starts coming on turf (at five different tracks). He’s another contender who’s likely to be coming from near the back of the pack, and he’ll need to take a significant step forward to make an impression on this field. His 84 Beyer in the Jeff Ruby — while a career best — is the lowest last-race number of any horse in Saturday’s race. The son of Breeders’ Cup Mile champ Karakontie is trained by Whit Beckman, who made his Derby debut last year with Honor Marie (eighth place). And he’ll be ridden by Joe Ramos, a Derby rookie at age 25.

A good bet? There’s nothing to indicate he belongs in the discussion here. Should be among the longest shots on the board once the betting is finished.

12. East Avenue (20-1)

Need to know: He was running second to Magnitude for most of the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds before doing very little running at the end, finishing more than 22 lengths back in 10th. He then set the pace in the Blue Grass Stakes and nearly held on for the victory, caught before the wire by Burnham Square’s last-to-first move. He ended 2024 as the beaten favorite — finishing ninth in a 10-horse field — in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and his best two races, by far, have come at Keeneland. Trainer Brendan Walsh is back for his second Derby after a ninth-place finish in 2019, and jockey Manny Franco — second on Derby favorite Tiz the Law in 2020 — returns for his sixth run. East Avenue, a son of star racehorse and stallion Medaglia d’Oro, is one of only three in this field that hasn’t won a race this year. Look for him to be in the early pace battle Saturday.

A good bet? His last start at Keeneland was encouraging, and this should be a good post for his front-running style, but hard to see him hanging around after the favorites make their moves.

13. Publisher (20-1)

Need to know: This son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah also hasn’t won a race in 2025. In fact, Publisher has never won a race at all. Still a maiden, the regally bred colt — he sold for $600,000 as a yearling — had one second-place finish and three thirds as a 2-year-old and ended up sixth in the Southwest Stakes after a troubled trip to start his 3-year-old season. He then finished fourth in the Rebel Stakes, but he looked great in the stretch there, coming from way back in the 13-horse field. Last time out, he rallied from last place to finish second to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby, again looking strong in the stretch. Brokers Tip, in 1933, was the last maiden to win the Derby. Publisher’s star connections will also be looking for a breakthrough Saturday. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has a record 26 Derby starters without a victory. And five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who will ride Publisher for the first time, has never finished in the top three on Derby Day in eight previous attempts.

A good bet? When looking for a long shot to spice up your Derby exotics, look for a horse that should be picking off tired competitors at the end. Look no further. Don’t leave Publisher out of the mix.

14. Tiztastic (20-1)

Need to know: The son of 2020 Derby favorite (and runner-up) Tiz the Law has leading stallion Tapit as a damsire and is trainer Steve Asmussen’s other entry in this field. Tiztastic’s best race was his last one, when he came from the back of the pack to win the Louisiana Derby by more than 2 lengths over Chunk of Gold (another long shot in Saturday’s race). Joel Rosario, who won the 2013 Derby aboard Orb, rode Tiztastic for the first time in that one and will be back this weekend. Tiztastic suffered four straight losses before the Louisiana Derby, including a no-excuse, fifth-place finish behind fellow Derby contenders Coal Battle, Sandman and Publisher in the Rebel Stakes on Feb. 23, his worst race since switching from turf to dirt as a 2-year-old. Distance shouldn’t be an issue for this guy, but there are several other closers in this field that appear to have a better shot.

A good bet? No excuse in his Rebel Stakes dud. Looked good coming from the back in the Louisiana Derby, but who did he really beat? There seems to be more value elsewhere.

15. Render Judgment (30-1)

Need to know: He’s one of eight horses in this field with a start over the Churchill Downs dirt and one of just three with a victory at the track. That was the only win of his seven-race career, a maiden victory last fall. The son of 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame — the only horse to ever beat Zenyatta, a race that also came at Churchill Downs — was defeated by nearly 20 lengths in the Rebel Stakes in his 3-year-old debut. He was more forwardly placed in the Virginia Derby next time out but no match for American Promise at the end. More recently, he finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes, failing to get in contention at any point despite a great trip. Churchill Downs expert Julien Leparoux rides for the first time. Trainer Kenny McPeek, who won the Derby with 18-1 shot Mystik Dan last year, advised the ownership group to point Render Judgment — 0 for 5 vs. stakes company — toward an allowance race next. Instead, they wanted to run him in the Kentucky Derby.

A good bet? What’s a horse gotta do to get 50-1 morning-line odds around here? Should be the longest shot on the board by post time. Should be toward the back at the finish.

16. Coal Battle (30-1)

Need to know: Trained by Lonnie Briley, who will be saddling his first Kentucky Derby starter at age 72, Coal Battle was the beneficiary of a perfect setup in the Rebel Stakes, which he won after biding his time and running into a hot pace. Sandman, one of the Derby favorites, finished third that day but was coming hard in the stretch. Five weeks later in the Arkansas Derby, the tables were turned, and Coal Battle finished 7 lengths behind Sandman and 4½ lengths behind Publisher, getting run down in the stretch by both after running closer to a similar pace up front. His numbers have been consistent, but not spectacular. There could also be some distance concerns here. Look for him to race in the middle of the pack, hope for a clean trip under jockey Juan Vargas — a Derby rookie at age 43 — and then hope he has enough in the tank at the end.

A good bet? That’s a lot of ifs. He’s among the most interesting in the 30-1 crowd, but expect those odds to be shorter Saturday. Even if they’re not, others have more upside as long shots for the exotics.

17. Sandman (6-1)

Need to know: The beautiful gray colt — a son of star stallion Tapit — will be another formidable contender coming from the back of Saturday’s field. He ran out of time with that style in his first two races this year — a second in the Southwest Stakes and a third in the Rebel, both at 1 1/16 miles — but it all came together in the slightly longer Arkansas Derby, which he won by 2½ lengths, earning a 99 Beyer in the process. Despite eight career starts, he’s still looked green in the stretch this year, not a terrific sign in a 20-horse field that will lead to lots of obstacles at the end. Still, there’s no doubting his speed, and — if he can run straight — he gobbles up late ground as well as anyone here. Eclipse Award-winning jockey Jose Ortiz — with four top-five Derby finishes in nine starts, but no wins — rides, and Sandman is trained by the accomplished Mark Casse, who won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 2019 but is 0 for 10 on Derby Day. Sandman has three starts at Churchill, but he’s never finished better than third.

A good bet? It wouldn’t be a surprise if he turns out to be the biggest star in this group. The talent is undeniable. He could win by daylight on Derby Day. But will he be focused enough in the stretch? We’ll see.

18. Sovereignty (5-1)

Need to know: The son of six-time leading sire Into Mischief scored a big win at Churchill Downs in his 2-year-old finale, beating Louisiana Derby winner Tiztastic and Arkansas Derby winner Sandman in that race. Sovereignty looked very comfortable coming from last place to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes in his 3-year-old debut, zooming past Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square there. And he looked great again to score a second-place finish in the Florida Derby — rallying from near the back of the pack and making a run at eventual winner Tappan Street in the stretch — in his last race. He’s bred for the distance, and his running style should be perfect for this particular Derby field. His Beyers actually dropped over his last two races — from a 95 in the Fountain of Youth to a 92 in the Florida Derby — but the eyeballs say he’s right on track, and there are other metrics to indicate another major move Saturday. Hall of Famer Bill Mott trains, and accomplished jockey Junior Alvarado — still looking for his first Derby win — rides.

A good bet? He passes the eye test. The outside post shouldn’t negatively affect him. And it sure seems like he’s sitting on a big one. This is the win pick, and anything around 5-1 is great value.

19. Chunk of Gold (30-1)

Need to know: He was beaten nearly 10 lengths by Magnitude in the Risen Star Stakes in February, but the winner was a machine that day, and — if you watch the race — Chunk of Gold’s second-place finish wasn’t that bad at all. His second-place run in the Louisiana Derby last time out — finishing 2 1/4 lengths behind Tiztastic — was actually a little less encouraging. That day, he was circled by the winner and almost caught by third-place finisher Instant Replay (who did go on to win a stakes race last month). Those have been Chunk of Gold’s only two starts on dirt — the other two came on the Turfway Park synthetic — and the son of Preservationist earned 92 Beyers for both races. Jockey Jareth Loveberry was second aboard Two Phil’s in his Derby debut two years ago, and 32-year-old Derby rookie Ethan West trains. Chunk of Gold and Grande are the only horses in the field that have never finished worse than second.

A good bet? You could make a case for him as a long-shot play. His distant second in the Risen Star wasn’t bad. A “maybe” play in exotics, but he’ll need a major move forward.

20. Owen Almighty (30-1)

Need to know: Another speedster, but this one will be breaking from the outside and hoping to get across the track and into a good position before the first turn. He was DQ’d after interfering in the stretch in his 2025 debut and outdueled by John Hancock — the eventual fourth-place finisher in the Louisiana Derby — after that. Then came an impressive victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, which he won wire to wire, earning a career-best 93 Beyer. Last time out, he raced near pacesetter East Avenue in the Blue Grass Stakes and had every chance to make his move before ultimately fading to sixth. Jose Ortiz was aboard that day, and Irad Ortiz Jr. rode him the previous four races, but Javier Castellano — the Derby winner in 2023 — will be his jockey for the first time Saturday. Trainer Bryan Lynch is saddling his second Derby starter, and Owen Almighty does have a win and a second-place finish in two starts at Churchill Downs. Lynch, however, has acknowledged the 1 1/4 miles Saturday might not be ideal for his colt.

A good bet? Last race set up perfectly for him, but he was nowhere to be found at the finish. However this one unfolds in the early going, expect a similar result in the stretch.

21. Baeza (12-1)

Need to know: Now that Baeza is officially in the race, he’ll be one of the most intriguing contenders in the field. In just his fourth career start, he gave Journalism the toughest test of the Derby favorite’s four victories, leading in the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby before getting caught at the end. Baeza earned a 101 Beyer that day, second only to Journalism in this field. His speed numbers have improved with every start, all of which have come in California. He’s trained by John Shirreffs, who turns 80 years old next month, won the 2005 Derby with long shot Giacomo and is best known for training the legendary Zenyatta. Baeza will be ridden for the first time by reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat. The colt is a son of McKinzie — who was a son of Derby winner Street Sense — and his dam was Puca, who was also the mother of 2023 Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch.

A good bet? No one ever wants to see a late scratch, but Baeza belonged in this race, and he’s be a must play in the exotic bets — and a real contender for the roses, possibly at a great price — now that he’s in.

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